Paolo Banchero went first overall in 2022. Jalen Johnson went 20th in 2021. For three years, that draft gap told the whole story — Banchero won Rookie of the Year, made an All-Star team, and carried Orlando’s offense while Johnson was scraping for rotation minutes in Atlanta. But the 2025-26 season has turned that hierarchy into a live debate.
Basketball Reference’s season logs tell it plain. Banchero’s fourth year with the Magic: 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists across 72 games, shooting .459 from the floor and .305 from three. Johnson’s fifth year with the Hawks: 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists — same 72 games, but .489 from the field and .352 from deep. Two extra rebounds, three extra assists, better percentages across the board. Johnson also logged 13 triple-doubles this season against Banchero’s three.
That’s not a typo. The kid who averaged 2.4 points as a rookie just out-boarded and out-dished a former first overall pick by a wide margin, and the voters noticed. Johnson earned his first All-Star selection and an All-NBA Third Team nod. Banchero made his second All-Star team but has yet to land on an All-NBA roster.
Now, I’ve spent enough years in the film room to know that regular-season numbers are like spring scrimmages — they tell you something, but they don’t tell you everything. Playoff basketball is where the pads get strapped on. And that’s where Banchero still holds ground.
Over three postseasons, Banchero has played 19 playoff games and averaged 27.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists. His series against Boston in 2025 — 29.4 points on .435 shooting with a .444 mark from three over five games — is the kind of performance that makes a front office stop shopping for a primary scorer. This year against Detroit, he put up 26.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists in a seven-game series.
Johnson’s playoff résumé is thinner. He appeared in six postseason games this year — his first real playoff run — and averaged 19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on .435 shooting. His three-point stroke faltered to .290 in that series. Solid numbers for a first taste of playoff pressure. Not the kind that rewrites a franchise’s ceiling.
What tilts the comparison toward Johnson right now is trajectory. He improved his scoring average by 3.6 points and his assists by 2.9 per game from last season to this one. Banchero’s 2025-26 scoring actually dipped from his 25.9-point pace in 2024-25 — though that season lasted only 46 games before injury cut it short, making the comparison imperfect.
Both players missed significant time last year. Banchero played 46 games in 2024-25; Johnson played 36. Both stayed healthy this season, each appearing in all 72 games, and that’s where Johnson’s fuller stat line carries more weight. You can argue about usage and system all day, but 72 games is 72 games. The film doesn’t lie.
Banchero is 23. Johnson is 24. They play the same position, occupy the same developmental tier, and their teams sit in the same conference. The question isn’t whether Banchero is still the bigger name — he is. The question is whether Johnson has passed him as a basketball player, and on the evidence of this season, the gap has closed to a razor’s edge. Johnson’s playmaking and rebounding give him the edge in the regular season. Banchero’s body of playoff work keeps him in front until Johnson proves it in May.
Sources:
- Basketball Reference — Paolo Banchero career stats
- Basketball Reference — Jalen Johnson career stats
- Reddit r/nba — original comparison post