The dust has barely settled on the NBA offseason, and the Sporting News has already crunched the numbers — win projections built on DARKO all-in-one metrics, blended with enough subjective gut-checking to keep things interesting. The result is a power ranking that puts Oklahoma City on top, San Antonio right behind them, and the defending champion Knicks already sliding.
Let’s get to it.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder — Projected: 64-18
The model loves them, and not by a little. Yes, the Thunder shed Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe to the luxury tax grim reaper. But reallocating Dort’s minutes to Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, and Alex Caruso actually tightens the rotation. The core — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the center of everything — is still dominant. Isaiah Hartenstein’s long-term deal locks the interior. They’re elite on both ends again, and the margin between them and the field is wide.
2. San Antonio Spurs — Projected: 57-22
A 62-win team that got better. Tobias Harris brings veteran scoring, Tarris Reed is NBA-ready out of the draft, and Julian Champagnie locked in below market. The real story: Victor Wembanyama keeps ascending, Dylan Harper earns more minutes, and Billy Donovan joins the staff as an assistant. The model says 57 wins. The eye test says higher.
3. Toronto Raptors — Projected: 54-28
The Kawhi Leonard trade is technically on hold, but the projection assumes it lands. Toronto was already an elite defense without him. Leonard replaces Brandon Ingram’s production and upgrades the defensive end considerably. Rookie Allen Graves flashed in Summer League. Kyle Anderson on a minimum deal is a low-risk flier. If Kawhi suits up north of the border again, this is a problem for everyone.
4. New York Knicks — Projected: 54-28
Here’s where it gets uncomfortable. The defending champs refused to spend into the second apron, and it cost them Mitchell Robinson. Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet returned on team-friendly deals. Andre Drummond — well past his prime — steps in for Robinson’s rebounding. The Knicks got worse while the East got better. A playoff team, yes. A top seed? That’s a harder sell.
5. Houston Rockets — Projected: 54-28
Last memory of Houston: a first-round flameout. But the regular season is a different animal. Steven Adams should be fully recovered from his ankle injury, restoring the offensive rebounding assault. Marcus Smart adds toughness. Tari Eason’s five-year, $81.5 million deal is a steal. And Fred VanVleet — back from a torn ACL and meniscus — fills the leadership and point guard void that gutted them last year. Even if Kevin Durant doesn’t replicate his 78-game season, the Rockets are built to win a lot of games.
6. Boston Celtics — Projected: 54-28
No Jaylen Brown in green. That stings. But Jayson Tatum’s return stabilizes everything, and Paul George slots cleanly into Joe Mazzulla’s system. Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley are quietly strong additions — Robinson for the offensive glass, Conley for backup ballhandling. A regular-season juggernaut with a retooled ceiling.
7. Denver Nuggets — Projected: 53-29
Peyton Watson’s free agency remains unresolved, and Denver needs him — the depth is thin. Losing Jonas Valanciunas to Marvin Bagley is a downgrade. Tim Hardaway Jr.’s shooting is gone. Rookie Trevon Brazile showed flashes in Summer League, but the Nuggets aren’t better than last year. Then again, Nikola Jokic is still Nikola Jokic, and that floor is awfully high.
8. Detroit Pistons — Projected: 47-35
A 60-win season, and now the regression cometh. Vegas says 50 wins; the model says 47. Swapping Tobias Harris for John Collins, trading Isaiah Stewart, and moving Caris LeVert all make Detroit thinner. Isaiah Joe adds shooting, Kevin Huerter should help over a full season, and rookie Ebuka Okorie is an automatic paint touch. But the East improved more than the Pistons did, and Cade Cunningham needs more help than he got.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves — Projected: 50-32
Credit the ambition. Trading Julius Randle and Naz Reid left a hole at power forward, but adding LaMelo Ball to share ballhandling duties with Anthony Edwards raises the ceiling significantly. Ayo Dosunmu re-signed, Jaden McDaniels locks the perimeter, and Rudy Gobert is still back there erasing mistakes. The power forward depth is a concern. The upside is not.
Sources:
NBA Power Rankings: How every team’s free agency, trades, and draft moves changed the league’s landscape — The Sporting News via Yahoo Sports Canada