Foster Griffin was supposed to be innings filler. The Nationals signed him in December 2025 for $5.5 million — a one-year deal for a 2014 first-round pick who had washed out of the majors with an 8.33 ERA across 6.1 innings, then spent three seasons in Japan rebuilding his career. The best-case scenario, as most of the industry saw it, was a serviceable back-end arm who might fetch a mid-tier prospect at the deadline.
Twenty starts later, Griffin owns a 2.68 ERA, an 11-2 record, 3.7 bWAR, and an All-Star selection. He ranks among the top 20 ERAs in baseball. And the conversation around him has become the most complicated decision the Nationals’ front office faces heading into the August 3 trade deadline.
Kennedi Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that rival MLB executives consider a Griffin trade “inevitable.” The Nationals, according to people familiar with the club’s thinking who were granted anonymity, are still weighing three paths: deal him, extend him, or keep him through season’s end.
The pull toward trading is straightforward. Griffin is a rental — his contract expires after 2026 — and his $5.5 million salary is a rounding error for any contender. A left-handed starter with a sub-3.00 ERA and postseason-caliber stuff, available for cash considerations and prospects, would be one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The return would be meaningful, if not overwhelming, given his limited big-league track record.
The pull toward keeping him is harder to quantify but impossible to ignore. Washington sits 51-51, eight games back in the NL East but just 1.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card. After five straight 90-loss seasons, .500 in late July is not nothing. The Athletic’s Spencer Nusbaum noted that the Nationals have received fewer innings from their starting rotation than any team in the majors, and that Griffin is the one pitcher saving the bullpen every fifth day.
The bullpen needs saving. Per CBS Sports, Washington’s relievers rank at or near the bottom of the league in ERA, FIP, expected ERA, and WAR. The Nationals are on pace for a historically dubious blown-saves total. A team 1.5 games from a wild card with the worst bullpen in baseball is a team whose contention is held together with tape and one left-hander’s cutter.
Griffin’s own numbers tell a story of someone who has figured something out. In a June 23 start against the Phillies — a 4-1 win in what Nusbaum called the most important series Nationals Park had seen in years — Griffin struck out nine across 7 1/3 innings, dotting six pitches at the zone’s edge. Manager Blake Butera, asked what Griffin’s presence means for the staff, let out a soft whistle. “He does stuff like he did tonight,” Butera said.
Griffin, still technically a rookie at 30, told The Athletic he treats every matchup the same: “a white ball and a round bat.” He studies opposing hitters and shares pre-game reports with teammates. The Nationals’ theoretical postseason rotation without him includes Cade Cavalli, two pitchers with ERAs over 5.00, and a 27-year-old rookie capped at facing a lineup twice.
The qualifying offer looms as a fallback — if Griffin leaves in free agency and rejects a QO, Washington recovers a draft pick. But that is a consolation prize, not a strategy. The real decision is whether 1.5 games out of a wild card with the worst bullpen in baseball is a reason to hold, or exactly the reason to sell.
Rival executives have made their preference known. The Nationals have not.
Sources
- Yahoo Sports / The Sporting News — Nationals trading 2.68 ERA left-hander called ‘inevitable’ by MLB execs
- The Athletic — Foster Griffin, Nationals face complicated trade deadline decision
- CBS Sports — MLB trends: Yankees’ first-inning offense, Twins’ defensive overhaul, Nationals’ blown saves
- Yahoo Sports / Federal Baseball — Foster Griffin’s intriguing situation with trade deadline looming