Paul Skenes is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, a human highlight reel with a four-seamer that used to touch 98 and now sits at 96.9. Shota Imanaga is a 32-year-old lefty having a perfectly fine season that nobody will engrave on a plaque. On paper, Saturday night at PNC Park is a mismatch.
The numbers say otherwise.
Imanaga owns the Pirates. Five career starts, 32 innings, one earned run — a 0.28 ERA. He threw six no-hit innings against them on April 10 at Wrigley Field and still took the loss because baseball is deeply, beautifully unfair. Seven walks, 32 strikeouts across those five outings. Pittsburgh’s lineup has looked like it’s swinging underwater every time he’s on the mound.
Skenes, meanwhile, has been mortal over his last dozen starts — a 4.55 ERA and 1.347 WHIP across 65⅓ innings. He’s still racking up strikeouts (82 in that span), but teams are scoring. The Cubs got to him on May 28 at PNC Park, pushing across three runs in 5⅓ innings and running his pitch count to 103. That’s the blueprint: make him work, wait for the velo gap to matter, and pounce.
That said, Skenes has won three straight starts, including seven innings of one-run ball against the Guardians on July 19. He’s also been excellent against Chicago historically — 2.77 ERA, 53 strikeouts in 39 innings. So it’s not like the Cubs can just show up and collect their runs.
Imanaga comes in rolling, too. Seven shutout innings against the Twins last Sunday at Wrigley, and over his last seven starts: a 2.31 ERA with a 1.179 WHIP and only five home runs allowed in 39 innings. The version of Imanaga the Cubs are getting right now is the one that made the All-Star team as a rookie in 2024, not the one who scuffled through the early months.
The Cubs (58-45) took the series opener Friday night 3-2 in 12 innings — Dansby Swanson singling home the go-ahead run in the 10th, Seiya Suzuki drawing a bases-loaded walk to add insurance, and Pete Crow-Armstrong tying it with a solo shot in the sixth. Matthew Boyd gave them seven strong innings in a no-decision. It was Chicago’s first game in 13 against an opponent with a winning record, and they passed it. Their next 12 games could all come against clubs above .500.
Beat Pittsburgh again Saturday, and the Cubs hit a milestone that spans 139 years: their 600th win in the city since the rivalry began in 1887, when the franchise then known as “Allegheny City” jumped from the American Association to the National League. The Cubs have won more games in Pittsburgh than in any other city — Philadelphia is second at 579. They’ve also lost more there than anywhere else, 714, which tells you everything about how long these two have been grinding on each other.
The Pirates (53-51) need this one to keep pace in a division where the Cubs are pulling away. Skenes at home with something to prove is a dangerous proposition. But Imanaga has been a problem Pittsburgh hasn’t solved, and the Cubs’ lineup just spent 12 innings proving it can manufacture runs against good pitching.
Give me Imanaga and the Cubs. The Pirates can’t hit him, Skenes isn’t the same guy he was last summer, and 600 is a nice round number to chase into Sunday.
First pitch is 6:30 p.m. ET on Marquee Sports Network and SportsNet Pittsburgh.
Sources:
- Yahoo Sports — Cubs vs. Pirates Saturday Preview
- Yahoo Sports — How to Watch Cubs vs. Pirates
- Yahoo Sports — Imanaga vs. Skenes Matchup Notes