The New York Yankees are staring at a trade deadline without their best player, and the math says that should not stop them.
Aaron Judge will not return by the July 31 deadline — Mike Lupica, writing for Yahoo Sports, flatly calls that a “spoiler alert” — but there is confidence within the organization that the slugger will be back at some point this season. That timeline creates a familiar front-office problem: trade present-value assets for a roster that won’t be at full strength until September, or stand pat and hope health arrives before the standings close.
Lupica’s argument for buying is straightforward, and the data backs the premise even if his framing leans folksy. The American League is mediocre — the All-Star Game result notwithstanding — which compresses the playoff field and raises the expected value of marginal roster upgrades. A .500-ish wild-card contender in a stronger league might rationally sell. In this AL, the breakeven win threshold for a postseason spot sits low enough that even a Judge-less Yankees club, if adequately patched, can clear it.
The most glaring inefficiency on the roster is behind the plate. Yankee catchers have produced a .519 OPS this season, tied with the Chicago White Sox for the worst mark in the majors. That is not a slump; it is a structural deficit at a position where the league-average OPS sits around .700. Lupica identifies Colorado’s Hunter Goodman as a name generating “smoke” in trade discussions. Goodman, 26, has been one of the few productive hitters on a historically bad Rockies team, and his bat would represent a massive upgrade over what the Yankees have run out there.
Shortstop, by contrast, is apparently settled. Lupica rules out a Francisco Lindor pursuit, telling readers to put away their trade simulators. The Yankees will not spend prospect capital there.
On the pitching side, there was a tangible development Saturday. Right-hander Clarke Schmidt, out all season after Tommy John surgery, faced live hitters for the first time, throwing an inning of batting practice. Schmidt said his fastball touched 95 mph and that he is scheduled for another session soon. He has expressed willingness to return in any role — bullpen, opener, whatever the club needs. For a team that watched Gerrit Cole make his own return from elbow rehab only to absorb a decisive two-run homer against the Dodgers on Friday, a second arm working back toward the active roster matters.
Cole’s outing produced the kind of managerial second-guessing that fills talk-radio segments but rarely moves the needle. Aaron Boone left his ace in to face a late-inning situation, the ball left the yard, and the Yankees lost. Lupica, citing analyst and former pitcher David Cone, defends the decision: if you cannot trust Gerrit Cole in a big spot, the entire calculus of ace deployment collapses. The move failed. The process was sound.
That tension — between outcome and process, between waiting for Judge and acting now — defines the Yankees’ next two weeks. The .519 OPS at catcher is not going to fix itself. The AL is not going to get harder. And Judge, as Lupica notes, is “no spring chicken.” If the front office believes he returns in 2025, the expected-value play is to augment the roster now and let the deadline chips fall where they may.
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